Welcome to Firesight
A collective intelligence forecasting initiative to stimulate discussion and gather feedback from across Canada about the upcoming fire season.
SIGN INFiresight will provide a shared platform for forecasting and capture what is often informal discussion, giving many more people a quantified voice on what they think.
Strengthening the fire management community.
Improving forecasting best practices.
Benchmarking our forecasting activity to make improvements over time.
Collective intelligence forecasting is dynamic and
only works when you are active
1
Forecast in as many forecast questions as you can.
2
Share feedback, news, or links to help others with more information.
3
Regularly update your forecasts (set a reminder for 5-10 minutes each week) - this is NOT a survey, so there’s no limit to how many times you can forecast on a question
4
Attend an upcoming “Learning Lab,” a discussion with a member of the fire management community..
How Firesight works:
You make probabilistic forecasts on questions about projects
Firesight aggregates forecasts in real-time so you see consensus probabilities, trends, and comments
Track your forecasts and update them as you learn new information
Why collective intelligence?
The success of the crowd has been proven.
4th century
Aristotle writes about the “wisdom of the crowd” in his smash hit Politics.
1906
Statistician Francis Galton asks 800 people at a county fair to guess the weight of an ox; median response was within 1% of actual answer.
1998
The University of Iowa launches the Iowa Electronic Market to let people bet on the outcome of elections. The IEM consistently outperforms polls in every major election since.
2006
Companies first introduce crowdsourced forecasting to measure people and business: e.g., product sales, KPIs, portfolio management. GE, Motorola, Google, Caterpillar, Shell, Exelon are among the companies that have since implemented the capability.
2011-2015
The U.S. Intelligence Community concludes a multi-million dollar study once again proving that wisdom of the crowds far outweighs that of a few experts.
Today
Firesight launches!
Do you have questions or
want to get involved?
The Firesight project team wants to hear from you!
CONTACT US